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Climate change is expected to have a major hydrological impact on the core breeding habitat and migration corridors of many amphibians in the twenty-first century. The Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus) is a species of meadow-specializing amphibian endemic to the high-elevation Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. Despite living entirely on federal lands, it has recently faced severe extirpations, yet our understanding of climatic influences on population connectivity is limited. In this study, we used a previously published double-digest RADseq dataset along with numerous remotely sensed habitat features in a landscape genetics framework to answer two primary questions in Yosemite National Park: (1) Which fine-scale climate, topographic, soil, and vegetation features most facilitate meadow connectivity? (2) How is climate change predicted to influence both the magnitude and net asymmetry of genetic migration? We developed an approach for simultaneously modeling multiple toad migration paths, akin to circuit theory, except raw environmental features can be separately considered. Our workflow identified the most likely migration corridors between meadows and used the unique cubist machine learning approach to fit and forecast environmental models of connectivity. We identified the permuted modeling importance of numerous snowpack-related features, such as runoff and groundwater recharge. Our results highlight the importance of considering phylogeographic structure, and asymmetrical migration in landscape genetics. We predict an upward elevational shift for this already high-elevation species, as measured by the net vector of anticipated genetic movement, and a north-eastward shift in species distribution via the network of genetic migration corridors across the park.
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No original genetic data were produced in this study. Demultiplexed fastq files of double-digest RADseq data are available at NCBI GenBank SRA under BioProject PRJNA558546. Scripts, genotype data, and environmental data used to perform analyses in this study are deposited at Dryad (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.xsj3tx99h). The U.S. Geological Survey metadata record associated with this study can be found at the USGS Science Data Catalog (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9KABYPU).
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We thank Michael Hernandez, Johanne Boulat, Alexa Killion, Mara MacKinnon, Steven Lee, Amy Patten, Heidi Rodgers, Cameron DeMaranville, Keevan Harding and Brenna Blessing for assistance with field specimen collection. Jared Grummer provided technical advice that improved library preparation for sequencing. Rui Hu provided invaluable suggestions and feedback about machine learning. Rachel Shoop contributed feedback that significantly improved the figures and presentation of this study. All animal handling was performed in accordance with SDSU animal care and use protocol #13-03-001B and adhered to the regulations of NPS research permits. We thank Jonathan Q. Richmond, Brian J. Halstead, and Leonard Nunney for their comments that significantly improved the writing of this manuscript. This research was supported by U.S. Geological Survey, Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Resource Preservation Program Research grant awarded to Steven Ostoja, Eric Berlow, and Matthew Brooks. In addition, PAM received funding from the Harold & June Memorial, Jordan D. Covin, and ARCS scholarships. The UC Merced Sierra Nevada Institute provided housing and accommodations for fieldwork. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Department of Biology, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Dr., San Diego, CA, 92182, USA
Paul A. Maier & Andrew J. Bohonak
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U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, San Diego Field Station, San Diego, CA, 92101, USA
USDA California Climate Hub, Agricultural Research Service, John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, CA, 95616, USA
Department of Biological Sciences, California State University, Los Angeles, 5151 State University Dr., Los Angeles, CA, 90032, USA
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PAM, SMO, AA, AGV, and AJB designed the study; PAM and SMO collected tissue samples; PAM performed the laboratory work and conducted the analyses, with guidance from AJB, AGV, and AA. PAM wrote the manuscript, with input from AGV, AJB, SMO, and AA.
Correspondence to Paul A. Maier.
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Maier, P.A., Vandergast, A.G., Ostoja, S.M. et al. Landscape genetics of a sub-alpine toad: climate change predicted to induce upward range shifts via asymmetrical migration corridors. Heredity (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41437-022-00561-x
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41437-022-00561-x
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